Today I unexpectedly ran 12.5 miles, bringing my total for the week to almost 56, my highest ever. 10-milers are beginning to seem commonplace – now to run them just a bit faster.
The marathon is four weeks from today, and my goal is to finish in three hours and twenty minutes (3:20), to qualify to run in next year’s Boston Marathon. I’ve been trying to figure out how that might happen.
A common rule of thumb is to predict marathon time by doubling one’s half marathon time and adding ten minutes. I finished my latest (and only) half in 1:39:51 – call it 1:40. So, (1:40 * 2) plus ten minutes equals 3:30. Hmmm, did I do that right? Yeah.
So that leaves me with an apparent deficit of ten minutes to close. Let’s do some accounting. Caveat: this will not be double-entry bookkeeping. We will be looking at one side of the ledger only. And I’m fine with that.
A ten minute deficit, is that right? Well, actually, we’re given 59 seconds slack, so my effective qualifying time is 3:20:59, or 3:21 for short. Deficit down to 9 minutes.
The attentive reader will recall that I ran my half marathon with a very bad cold. At 100%, I would have done better. How much better? Let’s say 3 minutes, or 1:37. That’s partly a made up number, partly my original pre-race and pre-cold estimate, and it’s a bit slower than the finishing time of my friend Mark, who passed me at Mile 10. Doubling the 3 minute savings here helps us by 6 minutes on the full marathon, leaving a deficit of just 3 minutes.
I’ll be running the marathon with a pace group, which will prevent me from making the classic going-out-too-fast mistake. That’s worth at least 1 minute. (Very possibly more.) Deficit down to 2.
About that pace group: the psychological benefit of a pace setter, especially for the last 10 miles, has got to be worth at least 1 minute. (Possibly more.) Deficit down to 1 minute.
By race day, I’ll have had 9 additional post-half marathon training weeks, including 5 weeks of 50+ miles. That’s worth 2 minutes. (Probably more.) Whoa – we’re looking at 3:19!
Alexander Technique lessons are beginning to sink in, and I can feel my posture improving by the week. That will help stave off late race fatigue. 1 more minute. 3:18!
Last but not least, the flexibility and strength I’m gaining from my P90X and (soon) Hip Helpers workouts have got to be worth another minute. 3:17!
Looks like this race is going to be easier than I’d expected.
Ain’t math great?!